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Weekend Betting Analysis – Premier League, Serie A, Bundesliga, La Liga
AccuScore’s Director of European football, Shahan Ahmed (@perfectpass on Twitter), has provided some odds analysis and expert picks for the upcoming weekend in European football. Last weekend, his expert pick and both his value opportunities were winners. With the Premier League and La Liga entering the second round and the Bundesliga and Serie A kicking off this weekend, he’s back with another Premiership betting picks and value opportunies for the top 4 leagues in Europe.
Value Opportunities: Premier League
Swansea City to win at 2.140
Swansea City is due to play their 2012-13 home opener at the Liberty Stadium on Saturday night. The Swans thrashed QPR at Loftus Road 5-0 last weekend, and now, they return home to a victorious celebration of another season of top flight football. Getting better than even odds at home against newly promoted West Ham United should raise a few eye brows to bettors. The AccuScore computer calculates Swansea to win at 66.2%, a healthy bit above the oddsmakers’ betting probability of 45.8%. In short, there’s value on picking Swansea to win at home.
Over 2.5 goals - Real Betis vs Rayo Vallecano at 1.870
Betis scored 5 goals against Athletic Bilbao last weekend, and more importantly, they let in 3. Coming home, Betis should continue to score, even if they don’t score as many as they did away to Bilbao last weekend. Their opponents, Vallecano, also scored last weekend, so the Over is looking good. The AccuScore computer calculated the Over 2.5 goals to occur 55.5% of the time in simulations, so there is good betting value here.
Inter Milan to win at 1.833
It’s the opening week of the Serie A, so picking Serie A winners is tough. Looking at the schedule, Inter Milan is offering close to even odds in an away fixture to newly promoted Pescara. Considering Inter played an away fixture on Thursday, this match would normally throw up a red flag as a trap game. However, Inter has looked good away from home in the preseason while wearing their red shirts (personally not a fan). Take Inter at 1.833, as they have looked a good team in their competitive Europa League matches this season, save for one flat performance at the San Siro. This match and matches like it also carry added weight in proving Inter Milan’s desire to truly challenge Juventus for the Scudetto this season.
See all of AccuScore’s Serie A Picks for this weekend
Hoffenheim +0.5 at 1.893
Another season of Bundesliga football kicks off on Friday with Borussia Dortmund going for three league titles in a row. Dortmund, however, seems to have slipped behind Bayern Munich in the early going this season after a loss in the German Super Cup. Both of the top two did well to ravage Borussia Monchengladbach with Bayern taking on Dante to solidify the defense and Dortmund taking on Marco Reus to plug in the attacking hole left by Shinji Kagawa’s departure to Manchester United. Gladbach struggled tremendously when Reus was not in the lineup last season, and last year’s fourth place team lost 3-1 to Dynamo Kiev in the Champions League qualifier earlier this week. With that match also taking place at Borussia Park, there was no travel involved, but even the addition of Luuk de Jong cannot overcome all Monchengladbach lost over the summer. Hoffenheim to draw or win has value.
Newcastle United +1 at 2.050
Chelsea are 2-0 this early season, but the Blues hardly looked impressive to the trained eye. With the exception of Eden Hazard, Chelsea have been poor. They were fortunate to earn two early goals in the opener before playing lackluster football for the remainder of the match. In the second match, Chelsea were down 2-1 before a goalie error leveled the scoreline, an offside goal gave them the lead, and the last corner of the match saw the keeper come up and get caught out. No offense to Reading, but Newcastle United are expected to be a bit better than Reading this season. Both Chelsea and Newcastle played during the midweek, but Chelsea used more first team regulars.
Normally, asking Newcastle to win or draw at Stamford Bridge is a tough ask, but this is not asking them to do that. This pick is only asking Newcastle to keep it a 1 goal game for better than even money. Demba Ba was left at home for the Europa League trip to Greece, as was Hatem Ben Arfa, and many of the regular Toon squad members did not start the match, unlike Chelsea’s regulars against Reading. The AccuScore computer calculates Chelsea winning by 2 or more goals at only 30.6%, so even money is good value here.
You can bet on these matches at Bet365