Napoli kick off their round of sixteen tie Tuesday night when they host Chelsea at the San Paolo.

The Naples based club hasn’t had the best of runs recently, winning jus two of their last seven games in the Serie A. The bright side is that they’ve been victorious in their last two matches, and have a fully fit squad complete with their three headed monster up front in Marek Hamsik, Ezequiel Lavezzi, and Edinson Cavani. The only major absentee is manager Walter Mazzarri, who has a two match ban after an incident against Villarreal in the group stage when he pushed Nilmar. Eduardo Vargas and Hugo Campagnaro are doubtful for the match as well, but Campagnaro is favoured to get the nod on Tuesday. If he’s unfit, the Partenopei still have Miguel Britos, their summer signing from Bologna who has been impressive since returning from injury. For once, Napoli may have quality in depth heading into European play.

Lethal counter-attack

For Chelsea, their big concern will be stopping Napoli’s high flying attack and lethal counter. Napoli have scored at least two goals in their last three Champions League matches, while conceding no more than one goal in five of their six group games. The Azzurri are also undefeated at home in Europe, and managed to damper Manchester City’s Champions League campaign with a 2-1 triumph with Cavani scoring a brace. The Premier League side will find the atmosphere in Naples significantly hostile and passionate compared to what they see in England, the twelfth man of Napoli’s fans will be another element they’ll have to control if the Blues have any hope of progressing.

Napoli are clinical; Chelsea have been poor

Meanwhile, Chelsea have drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 4 games, and given their defensive absentees, the likes of David Luiz might well struggle against Napoli’s potent attack as John Terry and Ashley Cole are unavailable through injury. This will also be Andre Villas-Boas’ last chance of winning over his doubters because surprisingly, Chelsea is not the favourite to win the first leg. Understandable considering Chelsea has won just once in their last seven visits to Italy, and the fact that their front man, Fernando Torres, has scored just twice in nine Champions League appearances while Edinson Cavani has netted four in six. Along with that, Chelsea have managed fifty-three goal attempts, third most in the competition, while Napoli have shot the second fewest with eighteen. It just goes to show which team is more clinical.

Hard to predict

This is one intriguing match-up, which is why it’s so hard to predict a winner. 3-1 Napoli is what seems likely given the high defensive line for Chelsea and the quick, lethal counter attack of the Partenopei along with their on target front men. I just don’t see Chelsea being able to control their opponents in the final third, which is why I think they’ll have all kinds of problems handling the attack, leading to three goals conceded and a daunting task in the return leg at Stamford Bridge.